The Lesson of Ukraine：Tsai is Not Zelensky
By Huang Nien
United Daily News, February 27, 2022
The world is all about Ukraine while Taiwan has been sidelined. This author believes that there are differences in content between the two, but they are very similar in structure.
If Ukraine joins the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), then it will be an encroachment on Russia. If Taiwan is completely dependent on the United States, then it will be like moving Guam to the doorstep of China. This situation is not only a matter of honor and disgrace for China and Russia, but also a matter of life and death. Therefore, the fight to the death is inevitable.
The theme of the political dispute in Ukraine is between the polar spectrum of “anti-Russia” versus “subservient to Russia,” but the theme of the political dispute in Taiwan is between “the Republic of China corresponds to mainland China” versus “Taiwan independence corresponds to mainland China.” That’s to say, within Taiwan and Ukraine, the cognition of survival and development strategy are the same—divided countries.
There is a great discrepancy of military power between Russia and Ukraine and the situation is the same between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Therefore, Ukraine and Taiwan must invoke external forces for help. The two sides of Ukraine’s blocs, one clinging to Russia; the other resting hope on Europe and the United States. However, both sides of Taiwan's political forces cling to the Western powers led by the United States.
Therefore, the two divided societies leave the most important national security issues to external forces. Taiwan and Ukraine face the same situation. Now, they also face the same risks, that is: is the United States reliable?
However, from Vietnam to Afghanistan to Ukraine, it is becoming clear that the United States has become increasingly unreliable in terms of “capacity” and “will.”
In retrospect on Ukraine, the United States has pulled out from the “chicken game” by declaring that the United States “will not send troops into Ukraine.” Even when Russia recognized the two new republics separated from Ukraine and established diplomatic relations, the United States claimed that it was only the “beginning of aggression.” When Kiev was attacked, Biden threw out a sentence: “I pray with Jill for the brave and proud Ukrainian people.” The Russians are slicing the sausages, moving from surgical strike to annihilation. If Europe and the United States are determined not to start a world war, then this war can only be carried out as a “war of self-defense.”
Taiwan is luckier than Ukraine, because “Taiwan independence” has been a fake issue and has not yet been incorporated into the constitution. But Taiwan is also less lucky than Ukraine because the populist bubble of independence has yet to burst.
After the situation in Ukraine deteriorated, the administration of President Tsai Ing-wen has always emphasized that Taiwan’s geopolitical position is more important than Ukraine’s. Although it is true, the question facing Taiwan is: Is Taiwan really going to use this status to safeguard the Republic of China (ROC)? Or to develop the independence of Taiwan?
At present, is Tsai like Zelensky?
It may not be fair to say that, but what is happening in Ukraine today is more or less the result of populist manipulation by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He leaned Ukraine to one side completely; therefore, he had to rely entirely on external forces and lose its subjectivity. When the outside help was only “talking and not doing anything”, it dawned on Mr. Zelensky that “joining NATO is just a dream”. “We are already in the coffin, but still waiting for foreign soldiers to come to help.” He can’t see anyone joining hands with the Ukrainians.
When the situation in Ukraine took a turn for the worse, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said: “Ukraine should not be the frontier of confrontation between the great powers, but a bridge between the East and the West.”
At first hearing of this, if you think it refers to the Taiwan situation, it is not surprising. Three decades ago, when Mr. Hsu Hsin-liang was chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), he advocated a “bold westward outreach”, that is, he proposed that Taiwan should serve as a “sea-land interface, a bridge between the East and the West.” The words they use are actually the same: the bridge between the East and the West.
Taiwan should become the “interface between the sea and the land/ the bridge between the East and the West” with the status of the ROC, and should not in a delusional fashion achieve Taiwan independence in the confrontation of great powers.
The biggest difference between Taiwan and Ukraine is that the Ukrainian government is pivoted on Ukraine, the rebel forces are in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. However, the DPP administration in Taiwan is not loyal to the ROC, it is only a shell in the guise of Taiwan independence. That is to say, the DPP claims to oppose the elimination of the ROC, but its own goal is to eliminate the ROC. The DPP and the Chinese Communist Party actually share the same aspirations. How to protect Taiwan through this “anti-ROC” stand?
The DPP gained the upper hand by steering “anti-China, protect Taiwan” in Taiwan. By the same model of “anti-Russia, protect Ukraine,” Mr. Zelensky forgot his obligations. Mr. Zelensky left Ukraine with no choice, but the DPP must not lead Taiwan down the road of no return.
It is hoped that both sides of the Taiwan Strait can achieve “I will not promote Taiwan independence, and you will not destroy the Republic of China.” Then Taiwan will retain its subjectivity as a “sea-land interface/ East-West bridge” and will not be downgraded to a chess between big power confrontations; it can still open up the road of peaceful competition and cooperation.
Taiwan’s brave and proud people don’t want to wait for the day the United States president prays for them.